A Better Way To APEC

We are paying extra attention to APEC this year in Honolulu, only natural since Hawaii plays host this November to the APEC leaders’ meeting with its thousands of attendant hangers-on from governments and private sector around the Pacific. This means that local companies are starting to think about how to do business in the APEC markets. But they almost always go about it the wrong way.

What’s the right way for small companies to do it, you ask? Look for the simplest and easiest markets in which to do business. Generally, that means starting out in your home market, the one you are most likely to fully understand and be comfortable with. Then move on to others that are easy to enter, gradually building up to the hard cases. Think about it – in anything else you might do, do you start out with the hardest opponent, going into the most inhospitable environment? No, you start training easily, gradually moving to tougher opposition until you can handle the very toughest.

But that is not how Hawaii’s companies tend to go about it. True, they begin with the Hawaii market and then move on to the U.S. mainland. But then they want to tackle China because China is in the headlines and thus is sexy. They used to want to go to Japan for the same reason. And most get their heads handed to them. There is a better way.

Let’s look at the APEC markets to see where it is easiest to move your product. Notice that I did not say the easiest places to sell your product, though they often go hand in hand – but the easiest markets to physically get your products in to.

The World Bank has already done the heavy lifting for you with its series of “Doing Business” publications – one of the newest of which is Doing Business in APEC 2011. The report looks at all sorts of factors in the ease of doing business in particular markets, but what catches my eye is the small section on the ease of trading across borders. It assesses how easy it is to move product into or out of a market, focusing on the red tape – numbers of documents to file, the number of days it takes to get it all done, and the cost per container of moving your goods in and out. The practical stuff that can make business profitable – or a pain in the okole (that’s a Hawaiian anatomy term). The World Bank ranks countries on the number of required documents (bank or customs clearance, port or warehousing, transport documents), the time it takes to move goods (documentation, customs clearance, inland transport and port/terminal handling), and the cost of all this per 20′ container. They don’t include ocean or air transport, or bribes. Both can be significant – and the latter is hard to measure.

data source: World Bank, 2011

What does this tell us? It can help you begin to narrow things down and decide to hold off on certain markets while you go after easier prey first. I have marked the easiest in each category with green, and the hardest with red, but that leaves the rest as a judgement call. It is pretty clear that you might want to try other APEC markets before you get your heart set on Russia. It is equally clear that Singapore and Hong Kong look pretty easy to enter. China? Documents and cost aren’t bad, but that’s an awful long time sitting on the dock waiting for clearance. And the United States? We’re fast, don’t require too many documents, but, lordy, are we expensive.

Weekend Hits

Things you might find interesting, but I haven’t had the time or inclination to blog about:

  • Anything involving counterfeiting, fraud, or commercial piracy gets me excited, so you can imagine my reaction to Monday’s reports of massive piracy of the hit film “Avatar“.  According to the London Times, Avatar set a new record for number of pirated copies in its initial days of release: 980,000 illegal copies in the first five days – half a million in the first two days!  The studio expected nothing like this, having convinced themselves that nobody would pirate a 3D film since they couldn’t copy it in 3D.  Wrong.  And it will get worse when Avatar comes out on DVD.
  • I’m glad their sales grew somewhere.  General Motors said Monday that its sales in China grew 67% in 2009 over 2008. I assumed this was from very low volume, but was blown away when I saw that GM sold 1.8 million vehicles in China last year.  Good on you, Detroit!
  • The Huffington Post carried an outstanding article January 5 by Michael T. Klare of Hampshire College, entitled “The Blowback Effect: 2020″, which examines likely trends over the next decade.  While I may not concur with all the details, Klare’s trends are spot on and should be the basis for many an international business plan in the next ten years.  Klare discusses the rise of China, the relative (but only relative) decline of the United States, the continued emergence of developing countries, and climate issues.  Well worth a read.
  • Another good read is an article at Asia Times by Brantley Womack of the University of Virginia.  Womack examines the good and the bad of the new China-ASEAN free trade agreement, with some especially interesting analysis of potential issues between China and Vietnam.  Look for “China-ASEAN Pact Offers More Than Win-Win.”
  • U.S. software firm Cybersitter, known for its award-winning parental filtering software, has filed suit in California against the government of China and two Chinese software firms for stealing code to block access to “politically undesirable” websites by Chinese Internet users.  The suit alleges that more than 3000 lines of code were copied into China’s control software, Green Dam.  Cybersitter says that more than 56 million copies of the pirated software were distributed after China required that Green Dam be bundled with new computers sold in China.  See the full story in the New York Times.
  • International Living has issued its 2010 Quality of Life Index of the best places to live, ranking a whopping 194 countries.  The top five are France, Australia, Switzerland, Germany and New Zealand.  The United States did well, coming in with a tie for 6th with Luxembourg and Belgium.  Then there is the other end of the scale.  The bottom five, predictably, are Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, Chad and Afghanistan.
  • It finally happened, but don’t get excited yet.  China is now the world’s largest exporter – at least for the first 11 months of 2009.  China sold $1.07 trillion during the period, while the long time title holder Germany slipped to second with a mere $1.05 trillion.  Germany’s exports were picking up toward the end, so adding December may reverse China’s title hopes.

Show Me The Money

We knew that 2009 was bad for economies all over the world, but the foreign direct investment numbers posted by Vietnam on December 28 are an eye-opener.  FDI in Vietnam for 2009 plummeted by an astonishing 66% from 2008 – to $21.48 billion.  There were 839 new investment projects in 2009, a drop of 73% from 2008.  The hospitality industry was the most popular investment target, followed by real estate development.

Seychelles: Is This Where The Money Comes From?

The top foreign investor in the country remains the United States, followed by the tax havens of the Cayman Islands and Samoa – which looks a bit peculiar.  Vietnam Briefing carried an article last Thursday that details the top ten investment projects in Vietnam during 2009, which adds a bit more color to the sources of the investments.  The third largest project on the list, for example, is a housing development projected to provide 90,000 apartments, for whom the partners are Smart Dragon Development from Samoa and Tuster Development from the Seychelles.  It appears that neither of these companies has ever done another project anywhere.  When I Googled the names, all references came back to the apartment project at Binh Duong.  Nor was I able to confirm that they are actually incorporated in the Seychelles or Samoa, which doesn’t mean they aren’t.  Curious.  I wonder where the money really comes from.